I want to start this off by saying none of the info in this post is meant to influence you to go out and buy a Lionel Messi soccer card right now. The market is very hot, and I don’t give that type of advice anyways. This is meant to give a little more insight about how I think about collecting and to hopefully encourage you to think more about the decisions you are making when buying soccer cards. I usually do content like this in video form with my Walkin With HQ IG vids @SoccerCardsHQ or with the auction recaps that BreakingTheLaw cards (Watch Here) and I do after big auctions.
What Factors Make Lionel Messi Cards Collectible
I originally started writing this blog to discuss a recent Lionel Messi card I bought and why I bought it. Based on a recent poll I saw on @leo_messi_collection IG story it got me thinking about Lionel Messi playing day cards a bit more. I was surprised about the results The poll in question was “Which are you taking?” and it was between a 2020 Topps Chrome Red /10 and a 2017 Panini Select #76 Gold /10. 75% of the people in the poll chose the Gold Select. I don’t think a lot of people put much thought when scrolling IG, but the lopsided nature made me want to dig a bit deeper into why this could be. My first thought on the subject was they are both /10 so in theory no difference there. They were both SGC 9 so no grade difference. That means it came down to set/year, team (as the Red was Barcelona and the Gold was Argentina), color/design.
Set Importance
I ran some IG polls of my own comparing iconic Red Chromes compared to Gold Prizms. In my mind Prizm and Chrome are the two clear cut choices as the best soccer card chromium type soccer cards. I thought that was pretty accepted in the hobby. Those polls came in at roughly 50/50 on the choices. This is part of the reason I was so shocked to see a Select card beat a Chrome card so badly. Maybe Select is more well regarded than I thought in the soccer card hobby. It does not get a ton of respect in the other sports much anymore now that Panini turned it from a hobby only product and included retail. The 2017 Select is a 3rd year Select card and the 2020 Chrome is a 4th year. The Select came earlier by a few years, but we are dealing with a 1st time release premium. 2017 was clearly pre boom and 2020 was in the heat of the boom but still released before a lot of the current collectors were buying soccer cards. I mention this because I don’t think a lot of the people voting Select were doing so because they felt nostalgia back to early Select. I do think nostalgia plays a big part of card values so definitely consider it. If anything, I would think that more people in the hobby would have nostalgia for 2020 Chrome since more ripped it and it was a very hot product thanks to the rookie class. Maybe we are all just programmed to think older is better. When I look at the difference in prices of the 2015-2017 Select (Search On Ebay) and the 2022-2024 Select (Search On Ebay) it’s clear that people very much value the old stuff much higher despite them all being Gold /10 cards.
Team Playing Day Cards
I ran a poll on my IG that asked, “If both cards were equal value would you rather have a Lionel Messi Barcelona playing day or an Argentina card?” I didn’t put a picture of the cards as to not influence the decision. Those results came in at 75% for Barcelona playing day. I was actually surprised by this result as well because I didn’t think the hobby was mature enough yet to really appreciate playing days, especially of a player that is still playing. When buying Messi, it is certainly something I consider. Before the 2022 World Cup the Barcelona cards were much more desired than his Argentina cards. Of course, that all changed when Argentina won. I don’t know how time plays out and the hobby evolves but I do know there are significantly less important Messi Barcelona playing day cards compared to playing day Argentina. Not factoring in we will have another full World Cup release year of Argentina cards. For example, in Select Messi if we just look at base true Golds Messi has 20 for Barcelona and 110 for Argentina so far. It’s why I would really like to have, but sadly don’t, a 2016 and 2017 Select Field Level (Search On Ebay). Not only are they his 2 best looking Select cards, to me at least, but also only his only 2 Barcelona. For Topps Chrome true Reds he has 40 Barcelona playing days and 0 Argentina. If you look at other important cards like KABOOMs (Search On Ebay) he has 1 set of Barcelona and 5 of Argentina so far. I am not going to break out every important card, but I would guess about 10-20% of the important Messi cards so far are Barcelona playing days. this is in large part due to Panini starting to release “premium” soccer cards in 2014 and Topps didn’t start until 2017. I don’t know what the future holds but if people equally want Barcelona and Argentina cards, the supply/demand forces would be very much in favor of Barcelona.
Eye Appeal Importance
Finally, that leads us to color and design. I think aesthetically Gold would get the nod over Red. Neither card was full bleed, but there was more Gold on the Select than there was Red on the Chrome thanks to the borders being bigger. Both cards were vertical. The image of Messi was bigger on the Select than on the Chrome which I think people prefer. If you made me choose why the Select won the poll by so much, I would simply think the eye appeal. On a quick glance poll that would be a huge factor. That is why I did not include images on my playing day Barcelona vs Argentina poll. I would hope if someone was pulling the trigger on actually buying a card there would be more thought put in. That is not to say that eye appeal shouldn’t be a big factor in a buying decision. The 2020 Red Chrome sold this week, but a 2017 Gold #76 has not sold in a while, so we don’t know for sure the true value difference. If I had to guess they would be in the same range but you never know with short print cards like these.
Why I Bought This Messi Card
Since I already wrote it, I will include how this post originally started since it fits enough into the Lionel Messi card discussion. I normally don’t talk about my buys as I don’t want to deal with people claiming I am pumping my bad. We have enough of that in the hobby already. I don’t think any of these are for sale even in raw so it’s not like they can be easily attained. If you do have one please sell it to me. Here is why I bought a Messi 2020 Panini Mosaic La Liga Stained Glass PSA 10 (Search On Ebay). It checks off a lot of boxes that I look for when collecting. It is pretty rare with a print run a little over 30 and a 10 pop of 6. From best I can tell a PSA 10 has only sold 3 times ever which is something I heavily consider when buying bigger cards. I somehow missed the one earlier this year even though I have been hunting this card. Print run and availability is usually the biggest factor that plays into my decisions. That will probably not come as a surprise to anyone that has been a longtime follower of mine. Second it as the 1st year of Panini Stained Glass soccer cards. Usually, we see that the 1st year matters. To me it is his best-looking Stained Glass although the 2022 Select FIFA Argentina (Search On Ebay) is just as nice. It is his only Barcelona playing days Stained Glass. He did get another Barcelona Stained Glass in 2022 Select La Liga. Despite it not being playing days and, in my opinion, not being as nice looking the 2022 Stained Glass sold for almost double the 2020. The 2022 does have an overall lower print run by a few but is Pop 9 as well. I think this price difference has a lot to do with familiarity with the card/set. Very few people care about 2020 Panini Mosaic La Liga while 2022 Select La Liga was a pretty popular set that came out when a lot more people were in the hobby.
Hopefully all of info I bought up gets you thinking a bit not only about Lionel Messi cards, but whatever cards you are buying. These factors usually take time to play out so they are more for the long-term collectors and not flippers. I am sure some people got this far and are thinking soccer cards are supposed to be fun and not work. That is OK as well. Despite everything I laid out there is no perfect formula for predicting future soccer card values. In fact hype from someone with a much bigger microphone than myself could matter more than any other factor. Unless you are the one with the microphone there is no way of knowing when that will come. It’s why I provide info and not investment advice 😉 At the end of the day collect what you like.
If you have any questions reach out via social media @SoccerCardsHQ on Twitter, IG and FB. Here is a whole article on Lionel Messi case hit print runs.